Final tally. This is not a wager however. I feel that somehow we're all going to end up losers. But I put my money on my heart.


Best Picture - Phantom Thread

Best Director - Paul Thomas Anderson

Best Actor - Daniel Day-Lewis

Best Actress - Saoirse Ronan

Best Supporting Actor - Willem DaFoe

Best Supporting Actress - Laurie Metcalf

Best Original Screenplay - Get Out

Best Adapted Screenplay - Mudbound

Best Animated Film - Coco (haven't seen it)

Best Foreign Language Film - The Square (haven't seen it)

Best Documentary - Faces Places (haven't seen it)

Best Documentary Short - Knife Skills

Best Original Score - Phantom Thread

Best Original Song - "Mighty River"

Best Sound Editing - Blade Runner 2049

Best Sound Mixing - Dunkirk

Best Production Design - Blade Runner 2049

Best Cinematography - Blade Runner 2049

Best Makeup - I prefer natural beauty (ie, mother!)

Best Costume Design - Phantom Thread

Best Film Editing - Dunkirk

Best Visual Effects - Blade Runner 2049

I did read, just prior to the voting deadline earlier this week, that Phantom Thread is getting very strong word of mouth around the Academy. Not only would its win be righteous, but a handy surprise upset is exactly the kind of kick to the gold bond balls that this Academy needs to feel.

I soured pretty quickly on SOW and 3BB, I guess I'll wait for PT, but yeah, I hope Get Out pulls an upset which isn't totally out of the question.

Overheard at the Independent Film Awards: "I would have voted for Get Out twice if they had let me!"

I actually saw all the Best Picture nominees plus most of the acting ones, too. Why, I really donno...I need a life.

That is funny.

Phantom Thread is exactly the type of movie that wins Best Picture. Small time, likely to be forgotten years later, and not as deserving as half the ones nominated. I will happily lead the backlash if it does win.

Oddly enough I did think it was great....

I guess Phantom Thread cracked the budget ceiling standard for the Independent Spirits, but it was, in fact, an independent production, and, ironically, the one Oscar nominee that most people seemed to have trouble finding in an actual theater this season. The film played in my area for a couple of weeks, about half the time of films like Three Billboards, Lady Bird, Darkest Hour and I, Tonya, but more than Call Me By Your Name (which played the single art house for a week with a single showing per day) and The Florida Project (which played about a week).

Get Out, btw, is still holding a midnight screen, and apparently people actually paid to see Greatest Showman. Of course they did.

My predictions for who will win:

Best Picture: Three Billboards (In the age of MeToo a woman led film will probably win; this has a closer path to a screenplay win than Lady Bird and TSoW which will propel it to the big win. If Get Out wins Best Original Screenplay I might bail over to it.)

Best Director: Guillemro del Toro

Best Actor: Gary Oldman

Best Actress: Frances McDormand (hoping for someone else to win here aside form Meryl Streep though)

Best Supporting Actor: Sam Rockwell (Willem Dafoe has a tiny chance of an upset, as 538 stated that he was slightly ahead of Mark Rylance at this point in the game. I'm fine with either winning, or better yet a tie.)

Best Supporting Actress: Allison Janney (even though the airport scene in Lady Bird > all of Janney's scenes combined)

Best Original Screenplay: Three Billboards (Get Out winning is completely plausible but due to the whole thing about older voters dismissing it for Best Picture, they would hypothetically do the same thing in the screenplay category. It's a matter of Globes/BAFTA vs. WGA and Critics' Choice. However, the WGA situation happened in 2015 when Birdman won despite the WGA snub so I think that'll repeat itself here.)

Best Adapted Screenplay: Call Me By Your Name

Best Animated Film: Coco

Best Documentary Film: Faces, Places (I could see Last Men in Aleppo winning because of the travel ban but I think the MeToo angle and Varda's octogenarian status will boost her chances. Plus, it'd be mildly redundant awarding a film about the White Helmets again.)

Best Foreign Film: A Fantastic Woman (The Square could pull an upset due to winning the Palme d'or though)

Best Live Action Short Film: DeKalb Elementary

Best Animated Short: Dear Basketball (Yes, there's the whole rape charge thing but I'm going out on a limb to bet that a lot of the Academy is made of Lakers fans - assuming they haven't bandwagoned to the Warriors. Plus, they might not necessarily blame the animators for Kobe's alleged actions)

Best Documentary Short: Heroin(e) (MeToo factor and the fact that it's probably a bit more uplifting than the others)

Best Cinematography: Blade Runner 2049 (The only way Deakins loses is either due to bias towards The Shape of Water or PR treatment fro Rachel Morrison)

Best Editing: Dunkirk (it won at the ACE and tied at Critic's Choice, so that combined with the Best Picture nominee rule will help it out. Baby Driver could very well win though).

Best Costume Design: Phantom Thread (I could see Shape of Water pulling an upset but seeing as Phantom Thread over performed the Academy will want to give it something.)

Best Production Design: The Shape of Water (BP nominee rule, ADG win, and a sweep everywhere else in this category. Blade Runner has a bit of a chance but Oscars still hate sci-fi)

Best Visual Effects: War for the Planet of the Apes (Blade Runner could win but VES and Critics' Choice sided with the former. They'll throw this franchise a bone).

Best Makeup: Darkest Hour

Best Sound Editing: Dunkirk

Best Sound Mixing: Dunkirk (Baby Driver could very well win here but given that the CAS sided with Dunkirk, and the BP nominee rule is still probably in play, I think Dunkirk will pull a double sweep like Fury Road and Gravity)

Best Original Score: Alexandre Desplat (Barring a miracle, Jonny Greenwood is getting robbed)

Best Original Song: Remember Me (Basically a coin flip between this and This is Me but I'm not going to bet against the Pixar tearjerker technique and the fact that Disney owns ABC)

My predictions for the Oscar (not my own favorites)

Best Picture: Lady Bird
Best Lead Actor: Gary Oldman - Darkest Hour
Best Lead Actress: Frances McDormand - Three Billboards
Best Supporting Actor: Sam Rockwell - Three Billboards
Best Supporting Actress: Allison Janney - I, Tonya
Best Director: Guillermo Del Toro - The Shape of Water
Best Animated Feature: Coco
Best Adapted Screenplay: Call Me By Your Name
Best Foreign Language: A Fantastic Woman
Best Original Screenplay: Get Out
Best Original Score: Johnny Greenwood - Phantom Thread
Best Cinematography: Roger Deakins - Blade Runner 2049

One of the last films that I had yet to see, partly due to it only playing briefly in my area. Sure, it might be online, but I'm scared of the lovesexy malware. I could easily see this winning this category.


I still haven't seen a damn one of them. I picked Square solely on the strength of Force Majeure, which, I know, is doing it wrong. Woman seems to lead the pack, but those in the Loveless camp also seem to be very passionate.


Kobe's proclivity for anal lacerations aside, I just honestly cannot believe that he's capable of making an Oscar-winning short cartoon about himself. What is this? Picture Pages?


Yeah, but isn't Shape of Water a bit scientifically fictitious?


Is this supposed to make Woody Harrelson feel better for losing?


I can be pretty cynical about these things, but I'm not sure if this works that way. But then again, if Disney has the clout to blackball Wonder Woman and murder Zack Snyder's daughter (#wokeDC), then I imagine they could have gotten Beauty and the Beast that tenth BP spot, at least.

These are my predications that I will assume will lead to me getting yet another free pizza at work tomorrow.

As usual, I've seen almost nothing that is nominated.

Best Picture: 3 Billboards
Actor: Gary Oldman
Actress Saoirse Ronan
Supporting Actor: Richard Jenkins
Supporting Actress: Allisson Janney
Director: Guillermo Del Toro
Animated Feature: Coco
Animated Short: Negative Space
Adapted Screenplay: Disaster Artist
Original Screenplay: Get Out
Best Documentary: Last Men in Aleppo
Documentary Short: Traffic Stop
Live Action Short: Wato Wote
Foreign Film: Loveless
Editing: Dunkirk
Sound Editing: Dunkirk
Sound Mixing: Dunkirk
Production Design: Blade Runner
Original Score: Jonny Greenwood
Song: Sufjan Stevens
Makeup: Darkest Hour
Costume: Phantom Thread
Visual Effects: War for the Planet of the Apes

I hope they have Little Caesars in Toronto.

Prediction: Pain

Predictions from my blog:

Best Picture: Dunkirk
Best Actor: Gary Oldman
Best Actress: Frances McDormand
Best Supporting Actor: Willem Dafoe (usually one surprise in the Supporting categories)
Best Supporting Actress: Allison Janney
Best Director: Guillermo Del Toro
Best Animated Film: Coco
Best Adapted Screenplay: Call Me By Your Name
Best Original Screenplay: Get Out (just love the irony of him winning an Oscar the day after the film that made him quit acting won Worst Picture at the Razzies)
Cinematography: Blade Runner 2049
Costume Design: Phantom Thread
Film Editing: Baby Driver
Makeup and Hairstyling: Wonder
Original Score: Dunkirk
Original Song: Remember Me, Coco
Production Design: The Shape of Water
Sound Editing: Dunkirk
Sound Mixing: Baby Driver
Visual Effects: Blade Runner 2049
Foreign Film: A Fantastic Woman, Chile
Feature Documentary: Last Men in Aleppo
Short Documentary: Heroin(e)
Animated Short: Lou
Live Action Short: Watu Wote: All of Us

Who's Roseanne?

Glad Sam Rockwell has an Oscar. Just maaaaybe not for that role?

I hope the makeup win was to compensate for Oldman losing Actor.

Sure, Thread is right in the title. Good start. Let's try to pick up steam.

I swear the past 4 Judi Dench movies look the same.

So Icarus "won" best Documentary Feature? I think we might need a few tests. Just to be sure.

You are not wrong.

It should have been for Moon.

Hell yes or Green Mile or Confessions of a Dangerous Mind.

Wooooo!

Go Peele

FINALLY Deakins!

I fell asleep and had a dream that the Oscars were completely predictable.

I guess it's still roughly up in the air, between 2 or 3 films, for Best Picture.

Oh what the hell?

Nice timing. It was a little weird that Get Out was already designated the Best Picture winner about an hour ago. Then it went back to normal.

At this point, I'm 100% convinced The Shape of Water has it locked up. If the Academy can't recognize that Desplat's score was complete dogshit, then they're just aching to reward that whole trash pile.

I'm predicting Three Billboards still.

Dunkirk in an upset.

Zoinks!*

*phantom incantation

This is the worst best picture win since Crash.

Suppose I have to watch it now.

Nah, it's shit.

Or Shakespeare in Love

This post has aged well.

#et_tu?

Time for a nice mushroom omelet and nine days in bed.

For the sake of completeness.

I'll try not to fuck any fish on the way to the bathroom.

No regrets. Zero.

Worst winner since Forrest Gump.

Worst winner since Oliver!

No Powers Boothe or Tobe Hooper in the Memoriam section.

And John Mahoney may be better known for TV, but he's goddamn W.P. Mayhew.

How can you commemorate Joseph Bologna and not mention Powers Boothe?

I got you, PB. All the memorial you can handle.

Huh, I haven't seen it, but all I've heard is how great The Shape Of Water is and how it's an amazing return to form for Del Toro, yet the reaction here is "worst BP since..."?
What's so bad about it?

Speilberg probably told them to omit Hooper. Asshole.

To be fair, I'm pretty sure DaMU's post about it was a joke, since I remember him listing it in his top 5 of the year, as did I (as my #3, and I still want to write a full review of it eventually), for what that's worth. So, it is a somewhat divisive film, yes, but it does have its fans, definitely.