Final tally. This is not a wager however. I feel that somehow we're all going to end up losers. But I put my money on my heart.
Best Picture - Phantom Thread
Best Director - Paul Thomas Anderson
Best Actor - Daniel Day-Lewis
Best Actress - Saoirse Ronan
Best Supporting Actor - Willem DaFoe
Best Supporting Actress - Laurie Metcalf
Best Original Screenplay - Get Out
Best Adapted Screenplay - Mudbound
Best Animated Film - Coco (haven't seen it)
Best Foreign Language Film - The Square (haven't seen it)
Best Documentary - Faces Places (haven't seen it)
Best Documentary Short - Knife Skills
Best Original Score - Phantom Thread
Best Original Song - "Mighty River"
Best Sound Editing - Blade Runner 2049
Best Sound Mixing - Dunkirk
Best Production Design - Blade Runner 2049
Best Cinematography - Blade Runner 2049
Best Makeup - I prefer natural beauty (ie, mother!)
Best Costume Design - Phantom Thread
Best Film Editing - Dunkirk
Best Visual Effects - Blade Runner 2049
Sun Mar 04, 2018 4:47 am
Jinnistan
Re: Award Season In Hell
I did read, just prior to the voting deadline earlier this week, that Phantom Thread is getting very strong word of mouth around the Academy. Not only would its win be righteous, but a handy surprise upset is exactly the kind of kick to the gold bond balls that this Academy needs to feel.
Sun Mar 04, 2018 4:50 am
topherH
Re: Award Season In Hell
I soured pretty quickly on SOW and 3BB, I guess I'll wait for PT, but yeah, I hope Get Out pulls an upset which isn't totally out of the question.
_________________ State of Siege |Gavras, 1972| + Deadpool |Miller, 2016| + Z |Gavras, 1969| - The Confession |Gavras, 1970| + Missing |Gavras, 1982| + The Revenant |Inarritu, 2015| + The Hateful Eight |Tarantino, 2015| +
+ Recommended
Sun Mar 04, 2018 6:42 am
Jinnistan
Re: Award Season In Hell
Overheard at the Independent Film Awards: "I would have voted for Get Out twice if they had let me!"
Sun Mar 04, 2018 4:00 pm
MadMan
Re: Award Season In Hell
I actually saw all the Best Picture nominees plus most of the acting ones, too. Why, I really donno...I need a life.
Phantom Thread is exactly the type of movie that wins Best Picture. Small time, likely to be forgotten years later, and not as deserving as half the ones nominated. I will happily lead the backlash if it does win.
I guess Phantom Thread cracked the budget ceiling standard for the Independent Spirits, but it was, in fact, an independent production, and, ironically, the one Oscar nominee that most people seemed to have trouble finding in an actual theater this season. The film played in my area for a couple of weeks, about half the time of films like Three Billboards, Lady Bird, Darkest Hour and I, Tonya, but more than Call Me By Your Name (which played the single art house for a week with a single showing per day) and The Florida Project (which played about a week).
Get Out, btw, is still holding a midnight screen, and apparently people actually paid to see Greatest Showman. Of course they did.
Mon Mar 05, 2018 12:34 am
Charles Longboat Jr.
Re: Award Season In Hell
My predictions for who will win:
Best Picture: Three Billboards (In the age of MeToo a woman led film will probably win; this has a closer path to a screenplay win than Lady Bird and TSoW which will propel it to the big win. If Get Out wins Best Original Screenplay I might bail over to it.)
Best Director: Guillemro del Toro
Best Actor: Gary Oldman
Best Actress: Frances McDormand (hoping for someone else to win here aside form Meryl Streep though)
Best Supporting Actor: Sam Rockwell (Willem Dafoe has a tiny chance of an upset, as 538 stated that he was slightly ahead of Mark Rylance at this point in the game. I'm fine with either winning, or better yet a tie.)
Best Supporting Actress: Allison Janney (even though the airport scene in Lady Bird > all of Janney's scenes combined)
Best Original Screenplay: Three Billboards (Get Out winning is completely plausible but due to the whole thing about older voters dismissing it for Best Picture, they would hypothetically do the same thing in the screenplay category. It's a matter of Globes/BAFTA vs. WGA and Critics' Choice. However, the WGA situation happened in 2015 when Birdman won despite the WGA snub so I think that'll repeat itself here.)
Best Adapted Screenplay: Call Me By Your Name
Best Animated Film: Coco
Best Documentary Film: Faces, Places (I could see Last Men in Aleppo winning because of the travel ban but I think the MeToo angle and Varda's octogenarian status will boost her chances. Plus, it'd be mildly redundant awarding a film about the White Helmets again.)
Best Foreign Film: A Fantastic Woman (The Square could pull an upset due to winning the Palme d'or though)
Best Live Action Short Film: DeKalb Elementary
Best Animated Short: Dear Basketball (Yes, there's the whole rape charge thing but I'm going out on a limb to bet that a lot of the Academy is made of Lakers fans - assuming they haven't bandwagoned to the Warriors. Plus, they might not necessarily blame the animators for Kobe's alleged actions)
Best Documentary Short: Heroin(e) (MeToo factor and the fact that it's probably a bit more uplifting than the others)
Best Cinematography: Blade Runner 2049 (The only way Deakins loses is either due to bias towards The Shape of Water or PR treatment fro Rachel Morrison)
Best Editing: Dunkirk (it won at the ACE and tied at Critic's Choice, so that combined with the Best Picture nominee rule will help it out. Baby Driver could very well win though).
Best Costume Design: Phantom Thread (I could see Shape of Water pulling an upset but seeing as Phantom Thread over performed the Academy will want to give it something.)
Best Production Design: The Shape of Water (BP nominee rule, ADG win, and a sweep everywhere else in this category. Blade Runner has a bit of a chance but Oscars still hate sci-fi)
Best Visual Effects: War for the Planet of the Apes (Blade Runner could win but VES and Critics' Choice sided with the former. They'll throw this franchise a bone).
Best Makeup: Darkest Hour
Best Sound Editing: Dunkirk
Best Sound Mixing: Dunkirk (Baby Driver could very well win here but given that the CAS sided with Dunkirk, and the BP nominee rule is still probably in play, I think Dunkirk will pull a double sweep like Fury Road and Gravity)
Best Original Score: Alexandre Desplat (Barring a miracle, Jonny Greenwood is getting robbed)
Best Original Song: Remember Me (Basically a coin flip between this and This is Me but I'm not going to bet against the Pixar tearjerker technique and the fact that Disney owns ABC)
Mon Mar 05, 2018 5:30 am
Slentert
Re: Award Season In Hell
My predictions for the Oscar (not my own favorites)
Best Picture: Lady Bird Best Lead Actor: Gary Oldman - Darkest Hour Best Lead Actress: Frances McDormand - Three Billboards Best Supporting Actor: Sam Rockwell - Three Billboards Best Supporting Actress: Allison Janney - I, Tonya Best Director: Guillermo Del Toro - The Shape of Water Best Animated Feature: Coco Best Adapted Screenplay: Call Me By Your Name Best Foreign Language: A Fantastic Woman Best Original Screenplay: Get Out Best Original Score: Johnny Greenwood - Phantom Thread Best Cinematography: Roger Deakins - Blade Runner 2049
Mon Mar 05, 2018 6:03 am
Jinnistan
Re: Award Season In Hell
Charles Longboat Jr. wrote:
Best Adapted Screenplay: Call Me By Your Name
One of the last films that I had yet to see, partly due to it only playing briefly in my area. Sure, it might be online, but I'm scared of the lovesexy malware. I could easily see this winning this category.
Charles Longboat Jr. wrote:
Best Foreign Film: A Fantastic Woman (The Square could pull an upset due to winning the Palme d'or though)
I still haven't seen a damn one of them. I picked Square solely on the strength of Force Majeure, which, I know, is doing it wrong. Woman seems to lead the pack, but those in the Loveless camp also seem to be very passionate.
Charles Longboat Jr. wrote:
Best Animated Short: Dear Basketball (Yes, there's the whole rape charge thing but I'm going out on a limb to bet that a lot of the Academy is made of Lakers fans - assuming they haven't bandwagoned to the Warriors. Plus, they might not necessarily blame the animators for Kobe's alleged actions)
Kobe's proclivity for anal lacerations aside, I just honestly cannot believe that he's capable of making an Oscar-winning short cartoon about himself. What is this? Picture Pages?
Charles Longboat Jr. wrote:
Blade Runner has a bit of a chance but Oscars still hate sci-fi
Yeah, but isn't Shape of Water a bit scientifically fictitious?
Charles Longboat Jr. wrote:
They'll throw this franchise a bone.
Is this supposed to make Woody Harrelson feel better for losing?
Charles Longboat Jr. wrote:
the fact that Disney owns ABC
I can be pretty cynical about these things, but I'm not sure if this works that way. But then again, if Disney has the clout to blackball Wonder Woman and murder Zack Snyder's daughter (#wokeDC), then I imagine they could have gotten Beauty and the Beast that tenth BP spot, at least.
Mon Mar 05, 2018 6:17 am
crumbsroom
Re: Award Season In Hell
These are my predications that I will assume will lead to me getting yet another free pizza at work tomorrow.
As usual, I've seen almost nothing that is nominated.
Best Picture: 3 Billboards Actor: Gary Oldman Actress Saoirse Ronan Supporting Actor: Richard Jenkins Supporting Actress: Allisson Janney Director: Guillermo Del Toro Animated Feature: Coco Animated Short: Negative Space Adapted Screenplay: Disaster Artist Original Screenplay: Get Out Best Documentary: Last Men in Aleppo Documentary Short: Traffic Stop Live Action Short: Wato Wote Foreign Film: Loveless Editing: Dunkirk Sound Editing: Dunkirk Sound Mixing: Dunkirk Production Design: Blade Runner Original Score: Jonny Greenwood Song: Sufjan Stevens Makeup: Darkest Hour Costume: Phantom Thread Visual Effects: War for the Planet of the Apes
Mon Mar 05, 2018 6:29 am
Jinnistan
Re: Award Season In Hell
crumbsroom wrote:
Best Picture: 3 Billboards
I hope they have Little Caesars in Toronto.
Mon Mar 05, 2018 6:33 am
topherH
Re: Award Season In Hell
Prediction: Pain
_________________ State of Siege |Gavras, 1972| + Deadpool |Miller, 2016| + Z |Gavras, 1969| - The Confession |Gavras, 1970| + Missing |Gavras, 1982| + The Revenant |Inarritu, 2015| + The Hateful Eight |Tarantino, 2015| +
+ Recommended
Mon Mar 05, 2018 6:54 am
Apex Predator
Re: Award Season In Hell
Predictions from my blog:
Best Picture: Dunkirk Best Actor: Gary Oldman Best Actress: Frances McDormand Best Supporting Actor: Willem Dafoe (usually one surprise in the Supporting categories) Best Supporting Actress: Allison Janney Best Director: Guillermo Del Toro Best Animated Film: Coco Best Adapted Screenplay: Call Me By Your Name Best Original Screenplay: Get Out (just love the irony of him winning an Oscar the day after the film that made him quit acting won Worst Picture at the Razzies) Cinematography: Blade Runner 2049 Costume Design: Phantom Thread Film Editing: Baby Driver Makeup and Hairstyling: Wonder Original Score: Dunkirk Original Song: Remember Me, Coco Production Design: The Shape of Water Sound Editing: Dunkirk Sound Mixing: Baby Driver Visual Effects: Blade Runner 2049 Foreign Film: A Fantastic Woman, Chile Feature Documentary: Last Men in Aleppo Short Documentary: Heroin(e) Animated Short: Lou Live Action Short: Watu Wote: All of Us
Mon Mar 05, 2018 9:10 am
topherH
Re: Award Season In Hell
Who's Roseanne?
_________________ State of Siege |Gavras, 1972| + Deadpool |Miller, 2016| + Z |Gavras, 1969| - The Confession |Gavras, 1970| + Missing |Gavras, 1982| + The Revenant |Inarritu, 2015| + The Hateful Eight |Tarantino, 2015| +
+ Recommended
Mon Mar 05, 2018 9:58 am
Deschain
Re: Award Season In Hell
Glad Sam Rockwell has an Oscar. Just maaaaybe not for that role?
Mon Mar 05, 2018 10:28 am
Jinnistan
Re: Award Season In Hell
I hope the makeup win was to compensate for Oldman losing Actor.
Mon Mar 05, 2018 10:31 am
Jinnistan
Re: Award Season In Hell
Sure, Thread is right in the title. Good start. Let's try to pick up steam.
Mon Mar 05, 2018 10:34 am
topherH
Re: Award Season In Hell
I swear the past 4 Judi Dench movies look the same.
_________________ State of Siege |Gavras, 1972| + Deadpool |Miller, 2016| + Z |Gavras, 1969| - The Confession |Gavras, 1970| + Missing |Gavras, 1982| + The Revenant |Inarritu, 2015| + The Hateful Eight |Tarantino, 2015| +
+ Recommended
Mon Mar 05, 2018 10:35 am
Apex Predator
Re: Award Season In Hell
So Icarus "won" best Documentary Feature? I think we might need a few tests. Just to be sure.
Mon Mar 05, 2018 11:15 am
MadMan
Re: Award Season In Hell
topherH wrote:
I swear the past 4 Judi Dench movies look the same.
Hell yes or Green Mile or Confessions of a Dangerous Mind.
Mon Mar 05, 2018 12:20 pm
topherH
Re: Award Season In Hell
Wooooo!
Go Peele
_________________ State of Siege |Gavras, 1972| + Deadpool |Miller, 2016| + Z |Gavras, 1969| - The Confession |Gavras, 1970| + Missing |Gavras, 1982| + The Revenant |Inarritu, 2015| + The Hateful Eight |Tarantino, 2015| +
+ Recommended
Mon Mar 05, 2018 12:39 pm
BL
Re: Award Season In Hell
FINALLY Deakins!
_________________ "It's OK to have beliefs, just don't believe in them." — Guy Ritchie
Mon Mar 05, 2018 12:48 pm
Jinnistan
Re: Award Season In Hell
I fell asleep and had a dream that the Oscars were completely predictable.
Mon Mar 05, 2018 1:35 pm
Jinnistan
Re: Award Season In Hell
I guess it's still roughly up in the air, between 2 or 3 films, for Best Picture.
Mon Mar 05, 2018 1:36 pm
Jinnistan
Re: Award Season In Hell
Oh what the hell?
Nice timing. It was a little weird that Get Out was already designated the Best Picture winner about an hour ago. Then it went back to normal.
Mon Mar 05, 2018 1:38 pm
BL
Re: Award Season In Hell
Jinnistan wrote:
I guess it's still roughly up in the air, between 2 or 3 films, for Best Picture.
At this point, I'm 100% convinced The Shape of Water has it locked up. If the Academy can't recognize that Desplat's score was complete dogshit, then they're just aching to reward that whole trash pile.
_________________ "It's OK to have beliefs, just don't believe in them." — Guy Ritchie
Mon Mar 05, 2018 1:39 pm
DaMU
Re: Award Season In Hell
BL wrote:
At this point, I'm 100% convinced The Shape of Water has it locked up. If the Academy can't recognize that Desplat's score was complete dogshit, then they're just aching to reward that whole trash pile.
I'm predicting Three Billboards still.
_________________ NOTE: The above-written is wholly and solely the perspective of DaMU and should not be taken as an effort to rile, malign, or diminish you, dummo.
Mon Mar 05, 2018 1:40 pm
Apex Predator
Re: Award Season In Hell
Dunkirk in an upset.
Mon Mar 05, 2018 1:42 pm
Jinnistan
Re: Award Season In Hell
Zoinks!*
*phantom incantation
Mon Mar 05, 2018 1:42 pm
BL
Re: Award Season In Hell
This is the worst best picture win since Crash.
_________________ "It's OK to have beliefs, just don't believe in them." — Guy Ritchie
Mon Mar 05, 2018 1:47 pm
Quite-Gone Genie
Re: Award Season In Hell
Suppose I have to watch it now.
_________________ "So, you see, he was condemned to walk in darkness a quadrillion kilometres (we've adopted the metric system, you know)..." ██████████████████████████████████████████The Devil, The Brothers Karamazov
Mon Mar 05, 2018 1:47 pm
BL
Re: Award Season In Hell
Quite-Gone Genie wrote:
Suppose I have to watch it now.
Nah, it's shit.
_________________ "It's OK to have beliefs, just don't believe in them." — Guy Ritchie
Mon Mar 05, 2018 1:48 pm
topherH
Re: Award Season In Hell
BL wrote:
This is the worst best picture win since Crash.
Or Shakespeare in Love
_________________ State of Siege |Gavras, 1972| + Deadpool |Miller, 2016| + Z |Gavras, 1969| - The Confession |Gavras, 1970| + Missing |Gavras, 1982| + The Revenant |Inarritu, 2015| + The Hateful Eight |Tarantino, 2015| +
+ Recommended
Mon Mar 05, 2018 1:48 pm
DaMU
Re: Award Season In Hell
DaMU wrote:
I'm predicting Three Billboards still.
This post has aged well.
_________________ NOTE: The above-written is wholly and solely the perspective of DaMU and should not be taken as an effort to rile, malign, or diminish you, dummo.
Mon Mar 05, 2018 1:49 pm
Jinnistan
Re: Award Season In Hell
#et_tu?
Mon Mar 05, 2018 1:51 pm
Jinnistan
Re: Award Season In Hell
Time for a nice mushroom omelet and nine days in bed.
Mon Mar 05, 2018 1:52 pm
Quite-Gone Genie
Re: Award Season In Hell
BL wrote:
Nah, it's shit.
For the sake of completeness.
_________________ "So, you see, he was condemned to walk in darkness a quadrillion kilometres (we've adopted the metric system, you know)..." ██████████████████████████████████████████The Devil, The Brothers Karamazov
Mon Mar 05, 2018 1:53 pm
Jinnistan
Re: Award Season In Hell
I'll try not to fuck any fish on the way to the bathroom.
Mon Mar 05, 2018 1:53 pm
Apex Predator
Re: Award Season In Hell
Apex Predator wrote:
Dunkirk in an upset.
No regrets. Zero.
Mon Mar 05, 2018 1:55 pm
Evil Prevails
Re: Award Season In Hell
Worst winner since Forrest Gump.
Mon Mar 05, 2018 2:00 pm
DaMU
Re: Award Season In Hell
Worst winner since Oliver!
_________________ NOTE: The above-written is wholly and solely the perspective of DaMU and should not be taken as an effort to rile, malign, or diminish you, dummo.
Mon Mar 05, 2018 2:02 pm
Jinnistan
Re: Award Season In Hell
No Powers Boothe or Tobe Hooper in the Memoriam section.
And John Mahoney may be better known for TV, but he's goddamn W.P. Mayhew.
Mon Mar 05, 2018 2:06 pm
Jinnistan
Re: Award Season In Hell
How can you commemorate Joseph Bologna and not mention Powers Boothe?
I got you, PB. All the memorial you can handle.
Mon Mar 05, 2018 2:10 pm
Wooley
Re: Award Season In Hell
Huh, I haven't seen it, but all I've heard is how great The Shape Of Water is and how it's an amazing return to form for Del Toro, yet the reaction here is "worst BP since..."? What's so bad about it?
Mon Mar 05, 2018 2:26 pm
Wooley
Re: Award Season In Hell
Jinnistan wrote:
No Powers Boothe or Tobe Hooper in the Memoriam section.
And John Mahoney may be better known for TV, but he's goddamn W.P. Mayhew.
Speilberg probably told them to omit Hooper. Asshole.
Mon Mar 05, 2018 2:26 pm
Stu
Re: Award Season In Hell
Wooley wrote:
Huh, I haven't seen it, but all I've heard is how great The Shape Of Water is and how it's an amazing return to form for Del Toro, yet the reaction here is "worst BP since..."? What's so bad about it?
To be fair, I'm pretty sure DaMU's post about it was a joke, since I remember him listing it in his top 5 of the year, as did I (as my #3, and I still want to write a full review of it eventually), for what that's worth. So, it is a somewhat divisive film, yes, but it does have its fans, definitely.
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